Financial Analysts and Their Predictions

Ethnologist Stefan Leins from the Department of Social Anthropology and Cultural Studies spent two years immersed in the world of financial analysts in order to shed light on their recipe for success. As a rule, scholars view the work of financial analysts with a certain degree of skepticism. Neoclassical economic theory holds that markets are informationally efficient and claims that the countless imponderables of the market render forecasting virtually impossible. Stefan Leins demonstrates how analysts position themselves as experts by means of social interactions to combine knowledge, calculation methods, and interpretations into credible statements. As such, the success of financial analysts rests not on an ability to predict the future but on how well analysts frame plausible forecasts to convince those around them. By using the principle of segmentation, displaying specialist expertise, and presenting meaningful “investment stories,” analysts legitimize their work and the scenarios they bet on.

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